BY: RUDY MAYOR
Momentum on comprehensive
immigration reform has withered away - and we can feel it. What was once an
optimistic group of eight Senators who seemed to embody the only qualities of
productivity in all of government, is now a frequently maligned faction that dared
to break the cycle of dysfunctional governance in Washington. There is no doubt
that the Gang of Eight’s influence is in decline; the group is a vestige of its
former self.
Yet, the same Senator who was
anointed by his peers as the leader of the Gang of Eight and the entire
immigration reform movement now stands as the lone victor in this whole ordeal
regardless of what happens. Senator Marco Rubio’s efforts have been a full-time
effort of part-politics / part-governing. Rubio was able to remain an insider
and indispensible piece of the immigration reform process, while exhibiting a
willingness to forcefully shape the conversation and the content of the bill.
He did all this based on the conservative cues he received from keeping his
finger on the GOP pulse – he did it masterfully.
Those who sincerely believe that
immigration reform is necessary – as I do - will certainly feel the biggest
blow if the bill fails. Its failure will not only mean that millions of persons
here illegally will continue to live and work in the shadows, but it will
embody what is now the new norm in governance. Our immigration system might be
broken, but we can’t fix it with a government that is equally broken.
Pass or Fail – Rubio is the big
winner in all of this. His good faith effort in trying to resolve the
immigration ordeal has been influenced, in part, by his understanding that
besides President Obama (who would actually be signing the bill) he would be
the highest ranking politician to take credit for the feat. He could go to the
American people in 2016 with a significant legislative accomplishment under his
belt. He could promise the American people an Administration that embodies the
principles of cooperation and results reminiscent of his time as leader of the
Gang of Eight. He could say that Obama talked about it – he talked the talk and
walked the walk.
Of course, the bigger win for
Rubio (and Republicans) would be if immigration reform failed in 2013, only to
be reconsidered in 2017. Promises of a renewed effort for comprehensive
immigration reform would easily be believed since Rubio got us so close as a
junior Senator. If Rubio promised that it would be the first thing on his
agenda as President, there is no doubt that he could swing the increasingly
Hispanic swing-states red. Not only would it be a win for Rubio, it would be a
win for the Republican Party.
No one can argue that the GOP has
had a difficult time reaching out to specific ethnic groups. Concededly, the
GOP has almost always focused on a broad principled message rather than
targeting specific ethnic factions with community specific promises. The
reality is that ethnic politics in America is on the rise and the fact that the
GOP has been so slow in reacting to this trend might lead to many more losing
elections. The GOP has taken the necessary first step by recognizing the need
to reach out to more ethnic groups. Identifying specific issues that can appeal
to various groups, even various sub-groups within a larger Hispanic population,
is the necessary next step. Forging ethnic alliances and loyalties are not
entirely new for the GOP. Cuban-Americans vote in a loyal block for the GOP
stemming back from Reagan’s forceful anti-communist message. Pro-Statehood
Puerto Ricans are often associated with Republican Party members who have been
more open to the idea than Democrats.
Spearheading a 2017 effort and
signing comprehensive immigration reform as President could have a lasting
effect on the image of the Republican Party for decades to come. The dual
interest in immigration reform and preserving the party of Lincoln and Reagan will
be on Rubio’s mind if immigration reform fails. At this point, Rubio has a choice to try his
hardest at passing the bill or sitting back and watching it fail. Either way,
in his eyes, his hard work was not for nothing. Failure of the bill today could
mean a win for him and a watershed win for the GOP in less than four years.
